Generative diffusion models, notable for their large parameter count (exceeding 100 million) and operation within high-dimensional image spaces, pose significant challenges for traditional uncertainty estimation methods due to computational demands. In this work, we introduce an innovative framework, Diffusion Ensembles for Capturing Uncertainty (DECU), designed for estimating epistemic uncertainty for diffusion models. The DECU framework introduces a novel method that efficiently trains ensembles of conditional diffusion models by incorporating a static set of pre-trained parameters, drastically reducing the computational burden and the number of parameters that require training. Additionally, DECU employs Pairwise-Distance Estimators (PaiDEs) to accurately measure epistemic uncertainty by evaluating the mutual information between model outputs and weights in high-dimensional spaces. The effectiveness of this framework is demonstrated through experiments on the ImageNet dataset, highlighting its capability to capture epistemic uncertainty, specifically in under-sampled image classes.

In machine learning, the ability to assess uncertainty in model predictions is crucial for decision-making, safety-critical applications, and model generalizability. This work introduces a novel approach for epistemic uncertainty estimation for ensemble models using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). These estimators utilize the pairwise-distance between model components to establish bounds on entropy, which are then used as estimates for information-based criterion. Unlike recent deep learning methods for epistemic uncertainty estimation, which rely on sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PaiDEs are able to estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster, over a larger input space (up to 100 times) and perform more accurately in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a series of experiments commonly used to evaluate epistemic uncertainty estimation: 1D sinusoidal data, $\textit{Pendulum-v0}$, $\textit{Hopper-v2}$, $\textit{Ant-v2}$ and $\textit{Humanoid-v2}$. For each experimental setting, an Active Learning framework was applied to demonstrate the advantages of PaiDEs for epistemic uncertainty estimation.